Blue Skies: A Methodology for Data-Driven Clear Sky Modelling

Blue Skies: A Methodology for Data-Driven Clear Sky Modelling

Kartik Palani, Ramachandra Kota, Amar Prakash Azad, Vijay Arya

Proceedings of the Twenty-Sixth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence
Main track. Pages 3777-3783. https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2017/528

One of the major challenges confronting the widespread adoption of solar energy is the uncertainty of production. The energy generated by photo-voltaic systems is a function of the received solar irradiance which varies due to atmospheric and weather conditions. A key component required for forecasting irradiance accurately is the clear sky model which estimates the average irradiance at a location at a given time in the absence of clouds. Current methods for modelling clear sky irradiance are either inaccurate or require extensive atmospheric data, which tends to vary with location and is often unavailable. In this paper, we present a data-driven methodology, Blue Skies, for modelling clear sky irradiance solely based on historical irradiance measurements. Using machine learning techniques, Blue Skies is able to generate clear sky models that are more accurate spatio-temporally compared to the state of the art, reducing errors by almost 50%.
Keywords:
Multidisciplinary Topics and Applications: AI and Natural Sciences
Multidisciplinary Topics and Applications: Computational Sustainability