SAGE: A Hybrid Geopolitical Event Forecasting System

SAGE: A Hybrid Geopolitical Event Forecasting System

Fred Morstatter, Aram Galstyan, Gleb Satyukov, Daniel Benjamin, Andres Abeliuk, Mehrnoosh Mirtaheri, KSM Tozammel Hossain, Pedro Szekely, Emilio Ferrara, Akira Matsui, Mark Steyvers, Stephen Bennet, David Budescu, Mark Himmelstein, Michael Ward, Andreas Beger, Michele Catasta, Rok Sosic, Jure Leskovec, Pavel Atanasov, Regina Joseph, Rajiv Sethi, Ali Abbas

Proceedings of the Twenty-Eighth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence

Forecasting of geopolitical events is a notoriously difficult task, with experts failing to significantly outperform a random baseline across many types of forecasting events. One successful way to increase the performance of forecasting tasks is to turn to crowdsourcing: leveraging many forecasts from non-expert users. Simultaneously, advances in machine learning have led to models that can produce reasonable, although not perfect, forecasts for many tasks. Recent efforts have shown that forecasts can be further improved by ``hybridizing'' human forecasters: pairing them with the machine models in an effort to combine the unique advantages of both. In this demonstration, we present Synergistic Anticipation of Geopolitical Events (SAGE), a platform for human/computer interaction that facilitates human reasoning with machine models.
Keywords:
AI: Human-Computer Interactive Systems
AI: Machine Learning
AI: AI Modelling and Simulation