Dynamic Graph Learning Based on Hierarchical Memory for Origin-Destination Demand Prediction

Dynamic Graph Learning Based on Hierarchical Memory for Origin-Destination Demand Prediction

Ruixing Zhang, Liangzhe Han, Boyi Liu, Jiayuan Zeng, Leilei Sun

Proceedings of the Thirty-First International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence
Main Track. Pages 2383-2389. https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2022/331

Recent years have witnessed a rapid growth of applying deep spatiotemporal methods in traffic forecasting. However, the prediction of origin-destination (OD) demands is still a challenging problem since the number of OD pairs is usually quadratic to the number of stations. In this case, most of the existing spatiotemporal methods fail to handle spatial relations on such a large scale. To address this problem, this paper provides a dynamic graph representation learning framework for OD demands prediction. In particular, a hierarchical memory updater is first proposed to maintain a time-aware representation for each node, and the representations are updated according to the most recently observed OD trips in continuous-time and multiple discrete-time ways. Second, a spatiotemporal propagation mechanism is provided to aggregate representations of neighbor nodes along a random spatiotemporal route which treats origin and destination as two different semantic entities. Last, an objective function is designed to derive the future OD demands according to the most recent node representations, and also to tackle the data sparsity problem in OD prediction. Extensive experiments have been conducted on two real-world datasets, and the experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method. The code and data are available at https://github.com/Rising0321/HMOD.
Keywords:
Data Mining: Mining Graphs
Data Mining: Mining Spatial and/or Temporal Data
Multidisciplinary Topics and Applications: Transportation