Proceedings

Automatic De-Biased Temporal-Relational Modeling for Stock Investment Recommendation

Download BibTeX Cite

Proceedings of the Thirty-Third International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Main Track. Pages 1999-2008.

https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2024/221

Abstract

Stock investment recommendation is crucial for guiding investment decisions and managing portfolios. Recent studies have demonstrated the potential of temporal-relational models (TRM) to yield excess investment returns. However, in the complicated finance ecosystem, the current TRM suffer from both the intrinsic temporal bias from the low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and the relational bias caused by utilizing inappropriate relational topologies and propagation mechanisms. Moreover, the distribution shifts behind macro-market scenarios invalidate the underlying i.i.d. assumption and limit the generalization ability of TRM. In this paper, we pioneer the impact of the above issues on the effective learning of temporal-relational patterns and propose an Automatic De-Biased Temporal-Relational Model (ADB-TRM) for stock recommendation. Specifically, ADB-TRM consists of three main components, i.e., (i) a meta-learned architecture forms a dual-stage training process, with the inner part ameliorating temporal-relational bias and the outer meta-learner counteracting distribution shifts, (ii) automatic adversarial sample generation guides the model adaptively to alleviate bias and enhance its profiling ability through adversarial training, and (iii) global-local interaction helps seek relative invariant stock embeddings from local and global distribution perspectives to mitigate distribution shifts. Experiments on three datasets from distinct stock markets show that ADB-TRM excels state-of-the-arts over 28.41% and 9.53% in terms of cumulative and risk-adjusted returns.

  1. [Barabási and Albert, 1999] Albert-László Barabási and Réka Albert. Emergence of scaling in random networks. science, 286(5439):509-512, 1999.
  2. [Carta et al., 2021] Salvatore Carta, Anselmo Ferreira, Alessandro Sebastian Podda, Diego Reforgiato Recupero, and Antonio Sanna. Multi-dqn: An ensemble of deep q-learning agents for stock market forecasting. Expert systems with applications, 164:113820, 2021.
  3. [Cheng and Li, 2021] Rui Cheng and Qing Li. Modeling the momentum spillover effect for stock prediction via attribute-driven graph attention networks. In Proceed- ings of the AAAI Conference on artificial intelligence, vol- ume 35, pages 55-62, 2021.
  4. [Chung et al., 2014] Junyoung Chung, Caglar Gulcehre, KyungHyun Cho, and Yoshua Bengio. Empirical evalua- tion of gated recurrent neural networks on sequence mod- eling. arXiv preprint arXiv:1412.3555, 2014.
  5. [Ding et al., 2020] Qianggang Ding, Sifan Wu, Hao Sun, Ji- adong Guo, and Jian Guo. Hierarchical multi-scale gaus- sian transformer for stock movement prediction. In IJCAI, pages 4640-4646, 2020. IJCAI
  6. [Feng et al., 2019a] Fuli Feng, Huimin Chen, Xiangnan He, Ji Ding, Maosong Sun, and Tat-Seng Chua. Enhancing stock movement prediction with adversarial training. IJ- CAI, 2019. IJCAI
  7. [Feng et al., 2019b] Fuli Feng, Xiangnan He, Xiang Wang, Cheng Luo, Yiqun Liu, and Tat-Seng Chua. Temporal re- lational ranking for stock prediction. ACM Transactions on Information Systems (TOIS), 37(2):1-30, 2019.
  8. [Goodfellow et al., 2014] Ian J Goodfellow, Jonathon Shlens, and Christian Szegedy. Explaining and harnessing adversarial examples. arXiv preprint arXiv:1412.6572, 2014.
  9. [Granger, 1969] Clive WJ Granger. Investigating causal rela- tions by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, pages 424-438, 1969.
  10. [He et al., 2022] Yanshen He, Qiutong Li, Feng Wu, and Jianliang Gao. Static-dynamic graph neural network for stock recommendation. In Proceedings of the 34th Inter- national Conference on Scientific and Statistical Database Management, pages 1-4, 2022.
  11. [Hospedales et al., 2021] Timothy Hospedales, Antreas An- toniou, Paul Micaelli, and Amos Storkey. Meta-learning in neural networks: A survey. IEEE Transactions on Pat- tern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 44(9):5149-5169, 2021.
  12. [Hsu et al., 2021] Yi-Ling Hsu, Yu-Che Tsai, and Cheng-Te Li. Fingat: Financial graph attention networks for recom- mending top-k k profitable stocks. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 35(1):469-481, 2021.
  13. [Huynh et al., 2023] Thanh Trung Huynh, Minh Hieu Nguyen, Thanh Tam Nguyen, Phi Le Nguyen, Matthias Weidlich, Quoc Viet Hung Nguyen, and Karl Aberer. Effi- cient integration of multi-order dynamics and internal dy- namics in stock movement prediction. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pages 850-858, 2023.
  14. [Khuwaja et al., 2021] Parus Khuwaja, Sunder Ali Khowaja, and Kapal Dev. Adversarial learning networks for fintech applications using heterogeneous data sources. IEEE In- ternet of Things Journal, 2021.
  15. [Kim et al., 2019] Raehyun Kim, Chan Ho So, Minbyul Jeong, Sanghoon Lee, Jinkyu Kim, and Jaewoo Kang. Hats: A hierarchical graph attention network for stock movement prediction. arXiv preprint arXiv:1908.07999, 2019.
  16. [Kingma and Ba, 2014] Diederik P Kingma and Jimmy Ba. Adam: A method for stochastic optimization. arXiv preprint arXiv:1412.6980, 2014.
  17. [Kipf and Welling, 2017] Thomas N. Kipf and Max Welling. Semi-supervised classification with graph convolutional networks. In International Conference on Learning Rep- resentations (ICLR), 2017.
  18. [Li et al., 2021] Wei Li, Ruihan Bao, Keiko Harimoto, Deli Chen, Jingjing Xu, and Qi Su. Modeling the stock re- lation with graph network for overnight stock movement prediction. In Proceedings of the twenty-ninth Interna- tional Conference on International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence, pages 4541-4547, 2021. IJCAI
  19. [Li et al., 2022] Yang Li, Hong-Ning Dai, and Zibin Zheng. Selective transfer learning with adversarial training for stock movement prediction. Connection Science, 34(1):492-510, 2022.
  20. [Liang et al., 2018] Zhipeng Liang, Hao Chen, Junhao Zhu, Kangkang Jiang, and Yanran Li. Adversarial deep re- inforcement learning in portfolio management. arXiv preprint arXiv:1808.09940, 2018.
  21. [Lin et al., 2021] Hengxu Lin, Dong Zhou, Weiqing Liu, and Jiang Bian. Learning multiple stock trading patterns with temporal routing adaptor and optimal transport. In Pro- ceedings of the 27th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowl- edge Discovery & Data Mining, pages 1017-1026, 2021.
  22. [Liu et al., 2020] Yang Liu, Qi Liu, Hongke Zhao, Zhen Pan, and Chuanren Liu. Adaptive quantitative trading: An imi- tative deep reinforcement learning approach. In Proceed- ings of the AAAI conference on artificial intelligence, vol- ume 34, pages 2128-2135, 2020.
  23. [Næs et al., 2011] Randi Næs, Johannes A Skjeltorp, and Bernt Arne Ødegaard. Stock market liquidity and the busi- ness cycle. The Journal of Finance, 66(1):139-176, 2011.
  24. [Oord et al., 2016] Aaron van den Oord, Sander Diele- man, Heiga Zen, Karen Simonyan, Oriol Vinyals, Alex Graves, Nal Kalchbrenner, Andrew Senior, and Koray Kavukcuoglu. Wavenet: A generative model for raw au- dio. arXiv preprint arXiv:1609.03499, 2016.
  25. [Panaretos and Zemel, 2019] Victor M Panaretos and Yoav Zemel. Statistical aspects of wasserstein distances. Annual review of statistics and its application, 6:405-431, 2019.
  26. [Rezaei et al., 2021] Hadi Rezaei, Hamidreza Faaljou, and Gholamreza Mansourfar. Stock price prediction using deep learning and frequency decomposition. Expert Sys- tems with Applications, 169:114332, 2021.
  27. [Sawhney et al., 2021a] Ramit Sawhney, Shivam Agarwal, Arnav Wadhwa, Tyler Derr, and Rajiv Ratn Shah. Stock selection via spatiotemporal hypergraph attention net- work: A learning to rank approach. In Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, volume 35, pages 497-504, 2021.
  28. [Sawhney et al., 2021b] Ramit Sawhney, Shivam Agarwal, Arnav Wadhwa, and Rajiv Shah. Exploring the scale-free nature of stock markets: Hyperbolic graph learning for al- gorithmic trading. In Proceedings of the Web Conference 2021, pages 11-22, 2021.
  29. [Wang and Leu, 1996] Jung-Hua Wang and Jia-Yann Leu. Stock market trend prediction using arima-based neural networks. In Proceedings of International Conference on Neural Networks (ICNN'96), volume 4, pages 2160-2165. IEEE, 1996.
  30. [Wang et al., 2021] Heyuan Wang, Shun Li, Tengjiao Wang, and Jiayi Zheng. Hierarchical adaptive temporal-relational modeling for stock trend prediction. In IJCAI, pages 3691- 3698, 2021. IJCAI
  31. [Wang et al., 2022a] Heyuan Wang, Tengjiao Wang, Shun Li, and Shijie Guan. Hatr-i: Hierarchical adaptive tempo- ral relational interaction for stock trend prediction. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 2022.
  32. [Wang et al., 2022b] Heyuan Wang, Tengjiao Wang, Shun Li, Shijie Guan, Jiayi Zheng, and Wei Chen. Heteroge- neous interactive snapshot network for review-enhanced stock profiling and recommendation. In IJCAI, pages 3962-3969, 2022. IJCAI
  33. [Wang et al., 2022c] Heyuan Wang, Tengjiao Wang, Shun Li, Jiayi Zheng, Shijie Guan, and Wei Chen. Adaptive long-short pattern transformer for stock investment selec- tion. In Proc. 31st Int. Joint Conf. Artif. Intell, pages 3970- 3977, 2022. IJCAI
  34. [Wang et al., 2022d] Jindong Wang, Cuiling Lan, Chang Liu, Yidong Ouyang, Tao Qin, Wang Lu, Yiqiang Chen, Wenjun Zeng, and Philip Yu. Generalizing to unseen do- mains: A survey on domain generalization. IEEE Trans- actions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 2022. IJCAI
  35. [Wu et al., 2020] Zonghan Wu, Shirui Pan, Guodong Long, Jing Jiang, Xiaojun Chang, and Chengqi Zhang. Con- necting the dots: Multivariate time series forecasting with graph neural networks. In Proceedings of the 26th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discov- ery & data mining, pages 753-763, 2020.
  36. [Xiang et al., 2022] Sheng Xiang, Dawei Cheng, Chencheng Shang, Ying Zhang, and Yuqi Liang. Temporal and het- erogeneous graph neural network for financial time series prediction. In Proceedings of the 31st ACM International Conference on Information & Knowledge Management, pages 3584-3593, 2022.
  37. [Xu et al., 2021] Ke Xu, Yifan Zhang, Deheng Ye, Peilin Zhao, and Mingkui Tan. Relation-aware transformer for portfolio policy learning. In Proceedings of the Twenty- Ninth International Conference on International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence, pages 4647-4653, 2021. IJCAI
  38. [Ye et al., 2022] Junchen Ye, Zihan Liu, Bowen Du, Leilei Sun, Weimiao Li, Yanjie Fu, and Hui Xiong. Learning the evolutionary and multi-scale graph structure for multi- variate time series forecasting. In Proceedings of the 28th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, pages 2296-2306, 2022.
  39. [Zhang et al., 2017] Liheng Zhang, Charu Aggarwal, and Guo-Jun Qi. Stock price prediction via discovering multi- frequency trading patterns. In Proceedings of the 23rd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, pages 2141-2149, 2017.
  40. [Zhao et al., 2022] Yu Zhao, Huaming Du, Ying Liu, Shaopeng Wei, Xingyan Chen, Fuzhen Zhuang, Qing Li, and Gang Kou. Stock movement prediction based on bi- typed hybrid-relational market knowledge graph via dual attention networks. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 2022.
  41. [Zheng et al., 2023] Zetao Zheng, Jie Shao, Jia Zhu, and Heng Tao Shen. Relational temporal graph convolutional networks for ranking-based stock prediction. In 2023 IEEE 39th International Conference on Data Engineering (ICDE), pages 123-136. IEEE, 2023.

References were extracted automatically from the PDF and may contain errors.

Welcome Future Conferences AI Journal Division IJCAI Proceedings About IJCAI IJCAI Awards