FireCast: Leveraging Deep Learning to Predict Wildfire Spread

FireCast: Leveraging Deep Learning to Predict Wildfire Spread

David Radke, Anna Hessler, Dan Ellsworth

Proceedings of the Twenty-Eighth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence
Main track. Pages 4575-4581. https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2019/636

Destructive wildfires result in billions of dollars in damage each year and are expected to increase in frequency, duration, and severity due to climate change. The current state-of-the-art wildfire spread models rely on mathematical growth predictions and physics-based models, which are difficult and computationally expensive to run. We present and evaluate a novel system, FireCast. FireCast combines artificial intelligence (AI) techniques with data collection strategies from geographic information systems (GIS). FireCast predicts which areas surrounding a burning wildfire have high-risk of near-future wildfire spread, based on historical fire data and using modest computational resources. FireCast is compared to a random prediction model and a commonly used wildfire spread model, Farsite, outperforming both with respect to total accuracy, recall, and F-score.
Keywords:
Machine Learning Applications: Environmental
Machine Learning Applications: Applications of Supervised Learning
Machine Learning Applications: Big data ; Scalability