Switching Poisson Gamma Dynamical Systems

Switching Poisson Gamma Dynamical Systems

Wenchao Chen, Bo Chen, Yicheng Liu, Qianru Zhao, Mingyuan Zhou

Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence
Main track. Pages 2029-2036. https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2020/281

We propose Switching Poisson gamma dynamical systems (SPGDS) to model sequentially observed multivariate count data. Different from previous models, SPGDS assigns its latent variables into mixture of gamma distributed parameters to model complex sequences and describe the nonlinear dynamics, meanwhile, capture various temporal dependencies. For efficient inference, we develop a scalable hybrid stochastic gradient-MCMC and switching recurrent autoencoding variational inference, which is scalable to large scale sequences and fast in out-of-sample prediction. Experiments on both unsupervised and supervised tasks demonstrate that the proposed model not only has excellent fitting and prediction performance on complex dynamic sequences, but also separates different dynamical patterns within them.
Keywords:
Machine Learning: Probabilistic Machine Learning
Machine Learning: Learning Generative Models
Machine Learning: Deep Learning: Sequence Modeling