FLARE: A Framework for Stellar Flare Forecasting Using Stellar Physical Properties and Historical Records

FLARE: A Framework for Stellar Flare Forecasting Using Stellar Physical Properties and Historical Records

Bingke Zhu, Xiaoxiao Wang, Minghui Jia, Yihan Tao, Xiao Kong, Ali Luo, Yingying Chen, Ming Tang, Jinqiao Wang

Proceedings of the Thirty-Fourth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence
AI4Tech: AI Enabling Technologies. Pages 9501-9509. https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2025/1056

Stellar flare events are critical observational samples for astronomical research; however, recorded flare events remain limited. Stellar flare forecasting can provide additional flare event samples to support research efforts. Despite this potential, no specialized models for stellar flare forecasting have been proposed to date. In this paper, we present extensive experimental evidence demonstrating that both stellar physical properties and historical flare records are valuable inputs for flare forecasting tasks. We then introduce FLARE (Forecasting Light-curve-based Astronomical Records via features Ensemble), the first-of-its-kind large model specifically designed for stellar flare forecasting. FLARE integrates stellar physical properties and historical flare records through a novel Soft Prompt Module and Residual Record Fusion Module. Experiments on the Kepler light curve dataset demonstrate that FLARE achieves superior performance compared to other methods across all evaluation metrics. Finally, we validate the forecast capability of our model through a comprehensive case study.
Keywords:
Domain-specific AI4Tech: Other AI4Tech applications
Advanced AI4Tech: Data-driven AI4Tech