Expanding Connected Components from Alternative Terminals: Global Optimization for Freshwater Fishes Under the UN's 30x30 Conservation Goal

Expanding Connected Components from Alternative Terminals: Global Optimization for Freshwater Fishes Under the UN's 30x30 Conservation Goal

Yue Mao, Zhongdi Qu, Imanol Miqueleiz, Aaron Ferber, Sami Wolf, Marc Grimson, Sebastian Heilpern, Felipe S. Pacheco, Alexander S. Flecker, Peter B. McIntyre, Carla P. Gomes

Proceedings of the Thirty-Fourth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence
AI and Social Good. Pages 9808-9817. https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2025/1090

Climate change and biodiversity loss are among humanity’s most pressing challenges. In 2022, under the auspices of the United Nations, over 190 countries reached a historic agreement to address the alarming loss of biodiversity and restore natural ecosystems. Target 3, often referred to as ``30x30'', seeks to effectively protect and manage 30% of the world’s terrestrial, inland water, coastal, and marine areas by 2030. In this work, we address the UN 30x30 target in the context of global freshwater fish conservation. Freshwater ecosystems are disproportionately unprotected, and their biota are declining at an alarming rate. Our goal is to select new protected areas that protect freshwater fish species as much as possible without exceeding total coverage of 30% of land area. To support this goal, we introduce the Expansion of Connected Components from Alternative Terminals Problem, a graph-based optimization problem that captures ecological priorities and connectivity constraints. We analyze its computational complexity, propose novel integer programming formulations, and develop scalable solution methods. We further evaluate its typical-case complexity under diverse settings and demonstrate that our approach scales to a global real-world scope, encompassing approximately 200,000 freshwater basins and 13,000 species, paving the way for implementing the 30x30 target on a worldwide scale.
Keywords:
Constraint Satisfaction and Optimization: General