Proceedings

RePST: Language Model Empowered Spatio-Temporal Forecasting via Semantic-Oriented Reprogramming

Download BibTeX Cite

Proceedings of the Thirty-Fourth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Main Track. Pages 3362-3370.

https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2025/374

Abstract

Spatio-temporal forecasting is pivotal in numerous real-world applications, including transportation planning, energy management, and climate monitoring.

In this work, we aim to harness the reasoning and generalization abilities of Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) for more effective spatio-temporal forecasting, particularly in data-scarce scenarios.

However, recent studies uncover that PLMs, which are primarily trained on textual data, often falter when tasked with modeling the intricate correlations in numerical time series, thereby limiting their effectiveness in comprehending spatio-temporal data.

To bridge the gap, we propose RePST, a semantic-oriented PLM reprogramming framework tailored for spatio-temporal forecasting.

Specifically, we first propose a semantic-oriented decomposer that adaptively disentangles spatially correlated time series into interpretable sub-components, which facilitates PLM to understand sophisticated spatio-temporal dynamics via a divide-and-conquer strategy.

Moreover, we propose a selective discrete reprogramming scheme, which introduces an expanded spatio-temporal vocabulary space to project spatio-temporal series into discrete representations. This scheme minimizes the information loss during reprogramming and enriches the representations derived by PLMs.

Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that the proposed RePST outperforms twelve state-of-the-art baseline methods, particularly in data-scarce scenarios, highlighting the effectiveness and superior generalization capabilities of PLMs for spatio-temporal forecasting.

Codes and Appendix can be found at https://github.com/usail-hkust/REPST.

  1. [Brown, 2020] Tom B Brown. Language models are few-shot learners. arXiv preprint arXiv:2005.14165, 2020.
  2. [Chen et al., 2012] Kevin K Chen, Jonathan H Tu, and Clarence W Rowley. Variants of dynamic mode decompo- sition: boundary condition, koopman, and fourier analyses. Journal of nonlinear science, 22:887-915, 2012.
  3. [Cui et al., 2021] Yue Cui, Jiandong Xie, and Kai Zheng. Historical inertia: A neglected but powerful baseline for long sequence time-series forecasting. In Proceedings of the 30th ACM international conference on information & knowledge management, pages 2965-2969, 2021.
  4. [Das et al., 2023] Abhimanyu Das, Weihao Kong, Rajat Sen, and Yichen Zhou. A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting. arXiv preprint arXiv:2310.10688, 2023.
  5. [Deng et al., 2021] Jinliang Deng, Xiusi Chen, Renhe Jiang, Xuan Song, and Ivor W Tsang. St-norm: Spatial and tempo- ral normalization for multi-variate time series forecasting. In Proceedings of the 27th ACM SIGKDD conference on knowledge discovery & data mining, pages 269-278, 2021.
  6. [Ekambaram et al., 2024] Vijay Ekambaram, Arindam Jati, Nam H Nguyen, Pankaj Dayama, Chandra Reddy, Wes- ley M Gifford, and Jayant Kalagnanam. Ttms: Fast multi- level tiny time mixers for improved zero-shot and few- shot forecasting of multivariate time series. arXiv preprint arXiv:2401.03955, 2024.
  7. [Fang et al., 2023] Yuchen Fang, Yanjun Qin, Haiyong Luo, Fang Zhao, Bingbing Xu, Liang Zeng, and Chenxing Wang. When spatio-temporal meet wavelets: Disentangled traffic forecasting via efficient spectral graph attention networks. In 2023 IEEE 39th International Conference on Data Engi- neering (ICDE), pages 517-529. IEEE, 2023.
  8. [Fang et al., 2024] Yuchen Fang, Yuxuan Liang, Bo Hui, Zezhi Shao, Liwei Deng, Xu Liu, Xinke Jiang, and Kai Zheng. Efficient large-scale traffic forecasting with trans- formers: A spatial data management perspective. arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.09972, 2024.
  9. [Geng et al., 2019] Xu Geng, Yaguang Li, Leye Wang, Lingyu Zhang, Qiang Yang, Jieping Ye, and Yan Liu. Spatiotemporal multi-graph convolution network for ride- hailing demand forecasting. In Proceedings of the AAAI conference on artificial intelligence, volume 33, pages 3656-3663, 2019.
  10. [Gruver et al., 2023] Nate Gruver, Marc Finzi, Shikai Qiu, and Andrew G Wilson. Large language models are zero- shot time series forecasters. In A. Oh, T. Naumann, A. Globerson, K. Saenko, M. Hardt, and S. Levine, edi- tors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, volume 36, pages 19622-19635.
  11. Curran Associates, Inc., 2023.
  12. [Gruver et al., 2024] Nate Gruver, Marc Finzi, Shikai Qiu, and Andrew G Wilson. Large language models are zero- shot time series forecasters. Advances in Neural Informa- tion Processing Systems, 36, 2024.
  13. [Guo et al., 2021] Shengnan Guo, Youfang Lin, Huaiyu Wan, Xiucheng Li, and Gao Cong. Learning dynamics and hetero- geneity of spatial-temporal graph data for traffic forecasting. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 34(11):5415-5428, 2021.
  14. [Gurnee and Tegmark, 2023] Wes Gurnee and Max Tegmark. Language models represent space and time. In The Twelfth International Conference on Learning Representations, 2023.
  15. [Han et al., 2020] Haoyu Han, Mengdi Zhang, Min Hou, Fuzheng Zhang, Zhongyuan Wang, Enhong Chen, Hong- wei Wang, Jianhui Ma, and Qi Liu. Stgcn: a spatial- temporal aware graph learning method for poi recommen- dation. In 2020 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM), pages 1052-1057. IEEE, 2020.
  16. [Han et al., 2021] Jindong Han, Hao Liu, Hengshu Zhu, Hui Xiong, and Dejing Dou. Joint air quality and weather pre- diction based on multi-adversarial spatiotemporal networks. In Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelli- gence, volume 35, pages 4081-4089, 2021.
  17. [Han et al., 2023] Jindong Han, Weijia Zhang, Hao Liu, and Hui Xiong. Machine learning for urban air quality analytics: A survey. arXiv preprint arXiv:2310.09620, 2023.
  18. [Jang et al., 2016] Eric Jang, Shixiang Gu, and Ben Poole. Categorical reparameterization with gumbel-softmax. arXiv preprint arXiv:1611.01144, 2016.
  19. [Jiang et al., 2023] Jiawei Jiang, Chengkai Han, Wenjun Jiang, Wayne Xin Zhao, and Jingyuan Wang. Libc- ity: A unified library towards efficient and comprehen- sive urban spatial-temporal prediction. arXiv preprint arXiv:2304.14343, 2023.
  20. [Jin et al., 2023a] Guangyin Jin, Yuxuan Liang, Yuchen Fang, Zezhi Shao, Jincai Huang, Junbo Zhang, and Yu Zheng. Spatio-temporal graph neural networks for predictive learn- ing in urban computing: A survey. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 2023.
  21. [Jin et al., 2023b] Ming Jin, Shiyu Wang, Lintao Ma, Zhix- uan Chu, James Y Zhang, Xiaoming Shi, Pin-Yu Chen, Yuxuan Liang, Yuan-Fang Li, Shirui Pan, et al. Time-llm: Time series forecasting by reprogramming large language models. arXiv preprint arXiv:2310.01728, 2023.
  22. [Jin et al., 2024] Ming Jin, Yifan Zhang, Wei Chen, Kexin Zhang, Yuxuan Liang, Bin Yang, Jindong Wang, Shirui Pan, and Qingsong Wen. Position paper: What can large language models tell us about time series analysis. arXiv preprint arXiv:2402.02713, 2024.
  23. [Kim et al., 2021] Taesung Kim, Jinhee Kim, Yunwon Tae, Cheonbok Park, Jang-Ho Choi, and Jaegul Choo. Re- versible instance normalization for accurate time-series forecasting against distribution shift. In International Con- ference on Learning Representations, 2021.
  24. [Lai et al., 2018] Guokun Lai, Wei-Cheng Chang, Yiming Yang, and Hanxiao Liu. Modeling long-and short-term temporal patterns with deep neural networks. In The 41st international ACM SIGIR conference on research & devel- opment in information retrieval, pages 95-104, 2018.
  25. [Li et al., 2018] Yaguang Li, Rose Yu, Cyrus Shahabi, and Yan Liu. Diffusion convolutional recurrent neural network: Data-driven traffic forecasting. In International Conference on Learning Representations, 2018.
  26. [Li et al., 2024] Zhonghang Li, Long Xia, Lei Shi, Yong Xu, Dawei Yin, and Chao Huang. Opencity: Open spatio- temporal foundation models for traffic prediction. arXiv preprint arXiv:2408.10269, 2024.
  27. [Liu et al., 2023a] Hangchen Liu, Zheng Dong, Renhe Jiang, Jiewen Deng, Jinliang Deng, Quanjun Chen, and Xuan Song. Spatio-temporal adaptive embedding makes vanilla transformer sota for traffic forecasting. In Proceedings of the 32nd ACM international conference on information and knowledge management, pages 4125-4129, 2023.
  28. [Liu et al., 2023b] Yong Liu, Tengge Hu, Haoran Zhang, Haixu Wu, Shiyu Wang, Lintao Ma, and Mingsheng Long. itransformer: Inverted transformers are effective for time series forecasting. arXiv preprint arXiv:2310.06625, 2023.
  29. [Liu et al., 2024a] Chenxi Liu, Sun Yang, Qianxiong Xu, Zhishuai Li, Cheng Long, Ziyue Li, and Rui Zhao. Spatial- temporal large language model for traffic prediction. arXiv preprint arXiv:2401.10134, 2024.
  30. [Liu et al., 2024b] Lei Liu, Shuo Yu, Runze Wang, Zhenxun Ma, and Yanming Shen. How can large language mod- els understand spatial-temporal data? arXiv preprint arXiv:2401.14192, 2024.
  31. [Liu et al., 2024c] Yong Liu, Chenyu Li, Jianmin Wang, and Mingsheng Long. Koopa: Learning non-stationary time series dynamics with koopman predictors. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 36, 2024.
  32. [Liu et al., 2024d] Yong Liu, Guo Qin, Xiangdong Huang, Jianmin Wang, and Mingsheng Long. Autotimes: Autore- gressive time series forecasters via large language models. arXiv preprint arXiv:2402.02370, 2024.
  33. [Nie et al., 2022] Yuqi Nie, Nam H Nguyen, Phanwadee Sinthong, and Jayant Kalagnanam. A time series is worth 64 words: Long-term forecasting with transformers. arXiv preprint arXiv:2211.14730, 2022.
  34. [Schmid, 2010] Peter J Schmid. Dynamic mode decomposi- tion of numerical and experimental data. Journal of fluid mechanics, 656:5-28, 2010.
  35. [Shao et al., 2022a] Zezhi Shao, Zhao Zhang, Fei Wang, Wei Wei, and Yongjun Xu. Spatial-temporal identity: A simple yet effective baseline for multivariate time series forecast- ing. In Proceedings of the 31st ACM International Con- ference on Information & Knowledge Management, pages 4454-4458, 2022.
  36. [Shao et al., 2022b] Zezhi Shao, Zhao Zhang, Wei Wei, Fei Wang, Yongjun Xu, Xin Cao, and Christian S Jensen. De- coupled dynamic spatial-temporal graph neural network for traffic forecasting. arXiv preprint arXiv:2206.09112, 2022.
  37. [Sun et al., 2023] Chenxi Sun, Yaliang Li, Hongyan Li, and Shenda Hong. Test: Text prototype aligned embedding to activate llm's ability for time series. arXiv preprint arXiv:2308.08241, 2023.
  38. [Tan et al., 2024] Mingtian Tan, Mike A Merrill, Vinayak Gupta, Tim Althoff, and Thomas Hartvigsen. Are lan- guage models actually useful for time series forecasting? arXiv preprint arXiv:2406.16964, 2024.
  39. [Touvron et al., 2023] Hugo Touvron, Thibaut Lavril, Gautier Izacard, Xavier Martinet, Marie-Anne Lachaux, Timothée Lacroix, Baptiste Rozière, Naman Goyal, Eric Hambro, Faisal Azhar, et al. Llama: Open and efficient founda- tion language models. corr, abs/2302.13971, 2023. doi: 10.48550. arXiv preprint arXiv.2302.13971, 2023.
  40. [Wu et al., 2019] Zonghan Wu, Shirui Pan, Guodong Long, Jing Jiang, and Chengqi Zhang. Graph wavenet for deep spatial-temporal graph modeling. arXiv preprint arXiv:1906.00121, 2019. IJCAI
  41. [Wu et al., 2020] Zonghan Wu, Shirui Pan, Guodong Long, Jing Jiang, Xiaojun Chang, and Chengqi Zhang. Connect- ing the dots: Multivariate time series forecasting with graph neural networks. In Proceedings of the 26th ACM SIGKDD international conference on knowledge discovery & data mining, pages 753-763, 2020.
  42. [Yan et al., 2023] Yibo Yan, Haomin Wen, Siru Zhong, Wei Chen, Haodong Chen, Qingsong Wen, Roger Zimmermann, and Yuxuan Liang. When urban region profiling meets large language models. arXiv preprint arXiv:2310.18340, 2023.
  43. [Yi et al., 2024] Kun Yi, Qi Zhang, Wei Fan, Hui He, Liang Hu, Pengyang Wang, Ning An, Longbing Cao, and Zhen- dong Niu. Fouriergnn: Rethinking multivariate time series forecasting from a pure graph perspective. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 36, 2024.
  44. [Yuan et al., 2024] Yuan Yuan, Jingtao Ding, Jie Feng, De- peng Jin, and Yong Li. Unist: a prompt-empowered univer- sal model for urban spatio-temporal prediction. In Proceed- ings of the 30th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, pages 4095-4106, 2024.
  45. [Zhang et al., 2017] Junbo Zhang, Yu Zheng, and Dekang Qi. Deep spatio-temporal residual networks for citywide crowd flows prediction. In Proceedings of the AAAI conference on artificial intelligence, 2017.
  46. [Zhou et al., 2021] Haoyi Zhou, Shanghang Zhang, Jieqi Peng, Shuai Zhang, Jianxin Li, Hui Xiong, and Wancai Zhang. Informer: Beyond efficient transformer for long se- quence time-series forecasting. In Proceedings of the AAAI conference on artificial intelligence, pages 11106-11115, 2021.
  47. [Zhou et al., 2024] Tian Zhou, Peisong Niu, Liang Sun, Rong Jin, et al. One fits all: Power general time series analysis by pretrained lm. Advances in neural information processing systems, 36, 2024.

References were extracted automatically from the PDF and may contain errors.

Welcome Future Conferences AI Journal Division IJCAI Proceedings About IJCAI IJCAI Awards