Dynamic Higher-Order Relations and Event-Driven Temporal Modeling for Stock Price Forecasting

Dynamic Higher-Order Relations and Event-Driven Temporal Modeling for Stock Price Forecasting

Kijeong Park, Sungchul Hong, Jong-June Jeon

Proceedings of the Thirty-Fourth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence
Main Track. Pages 6048-6056. https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2025/673

In stock price forecasting, modeling the probabilistic dependence between stock prices within a time-series framework has remained a persistent and highly challenging area of research. We propose a novel model to explain the extreme co-movement in multivariate data with time-series dependencies. Our model incorporates a Hawkes process layer to capture abrupt co-movements, thereby enhancing the temporal representation of market dynamics. We introduce dynamic hypergraphs into our model adapting to higher-order (groupwise rather than pairwise) relationships within the stock market. Extensive experiments on real-world benchmarks demonstrate the robustness of our approach in predictive performance and portfolio stability.
Keywords:
Machine Learning: ML: Applications
Machine Learning: ML: Deep learning architectures
Machine Learning: ML: Supervised Learning
Multidisciplinary Topics and Applications: MTA: Finance